In other words, these are the implied probabilities that at least one of the four teams at that seed wins the National Championship. These would be the fair odds for each seed to win the NCAA Tournament based on historical results.

The final column in our first table is labeled “True Odds”. For example, 85% of number three seeds make it to the second round, but just over 11% make the Final Four, or about one every 2 years. Below you will find the probabilities for each seed to advance to that round based on historical win percentages.

This should be of good use when filling out your bracket.

Going back to the start of the modern bracket era, we have used the results of each round in the tournament so far to calculate the odds of each seed making it to each round. In fact, number one seeds are almost 4x more likely to win the championship than the next-best seed. Earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament is a huge advantage.